Eight bold Maple Leafs predictions for 2023-24 from Auston Matthews dominance to trades
It’s time to dust off the crystal ball and peer into the Toronto Maple Leafs’ future with some predictions.
Spicy predictions only. No mild takes are allowed here. We’ll rate the dozen we’ve come up with on a spicy scale of 🌶️ (slight heat) to 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️ (the hottest of the wings your favourite celebrity has nibbled at on Hot Ones).
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Grab a glass of water and dive in.
1. Joshua Kloke: Matthew Knies scores 20 goals
As I got to know Matthew Knies well last season, I learned not much fazes him. He’s got the makeup to play in Toronto. And this season, though that same makeup remains, his lighthearted demeanour has been replaced by a more serious attitude. His summer focus was building endurance to play the longest season of his career.
Knies looks ready for his first full NHL season. He’s got the size to clean up the garbage around the net and the hands to get powerful shots off from the slot.
Plus, Tyler Bertuzzi doesn’t yet look like a slam dunk alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Is it inconceivable Knies gets top-line minutes to go along with likely power-play time?
I actually don’t think this is such a bold prediction! Four rookies potted 20 goals last season. That’s the lowest number of rookies to score 20 over the last seven 82-game seasons.
Is Knies not one of the best four rookie goal scorers this season?
Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️
2. Jonas Siegel: The Leafs trade for a centre
What looked like an area of concern heading into the fall mushroomed into a bigger potential sore spot at camp. The Leafs said they would give William Nylander a good, long run at centre, only to squash that idea after only two exhibition games.
Clearly, the team isn’t jazzed either about giving David Kämpf third-line minutes once again (which explains the apparent willingness to hand a big contract to Ryan O’Reilly, who chose the Nashville Predators instead). Not unlike last season, we’ll see a debate simmer in Toronto about the team’s biggest need. This time it’ll come down to adding another centre or upgrading on defence. This problem isn’t going away.
Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️
Ilya Samsonov has said he wants to be in Toronto. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)3. Kloke: Samsonov gets a five-year, $5 million AAV contract
Brad Treliving is not afraid of handing out sizable contracts to UFA goalies. Exhibit A: Jacob Markstrom, whom Treliving inked to six years with a $6 million AAV in 2020.
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Ilya Samsonov is going to be a UFA next season. And if we’re ranking the goalies who could be available on the open market, there’s only Connor Hellebuyck and Carter Hart ahead of him. Treliving likely knows he’d get outbid on Hellebuyck. Beyond that, there are so few capable and dependable No. 1 goalies in the NHL that teams that have one rarely let them go in a trade. And so, if you have one in-house, why not lock them up?
Plus, we still don’t know whether Joseph Woll is ready for more than backup duty. Samsonov has said he wants to be in Toronto. This one still moves up the Scoville scale because handing out a five-year deal to a goalie with only two full seasons under his belt is a major risk. But if Samsonov plays as well as he did last season, Treliving will have seen enough to keep him in blue and white for the future.
Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
4. Siegel: Auston Matthews wins his third Rocket and second Hart Trophy
Here’s what makes this a spicy prediction: Matthews is going to have to beat Connor McDavid in both departments. That’s, uh, not going to be easy. Even the Rocket won’t be a cinch: McDavid scored 64 goals last season — four more than the career-best 60 that Matthews managed (in 73 games) two seasons ago. McDavid has finished first, second (beaten by Matthews) and first in Hart Trophy voting the last three seasons.
But the path is there for Matthews to reclaim both honours, the ones he nabbed two seasons ago. If he stays healthy, Matthews will inevitably score a lot of goals and deliver A-plus defence as the best player on what should be another strong Leafs team. The narrative will be there: A healthy Matthews bounces back to dominance.
Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
5. Siegel: The Leafs sign William Nylander to an eight-year extension
It’s one thing for the organization to let the likes of Michael Bunting, Zach Hyman and Frederik Andersen walk in free agency. It’s another to let a star like Nylander do the same, especially for Treliving.
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I can’t imagine he wants Johnny Gaudreau 2.0 in Year 1 as Leafs GM. I have to think his front office realizes it can’t win this thing — and by win, I mean squeeze Nylander into taking less. Nylander has the cudgel of unrestricted free agency next summer. If the Leafs don’t want to pay top dollar, someone else will. If Nylander zips out to a hot start, the pressure to get something done will be even higher.
Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
6. Kloke: Nick Robertson is not on the Leafs roster after the trade deadline
This prediction is twofold.
The mild-spiced wing prediction? Robertson will be playing constant, top-line minutes in the AHL late in the season and will stay at Coca-Cola Coliseum. The Buffalo-sauced prediction? Robertson could be playing well enough in the AHL and not see an opportunity down the road with the Leafs that a trade becomes best for him.
Robertson has plenty of NHL-ready qualities. He deserves the chance to play regular NHL minutes if he can stay healthy. There were rumblings about his possibly requesting a trade in the past. At some point, the Leafs are going to have to decide on his future. In the final year of his entry-level deal, this feels like that time.
Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
John Klingberg has had a poor past two seasons. (Lance McMillan / Toronto Star via Getty Images)Shocker, but I’m not convinced this Klingberg bet will pay off. It wasn’t just last season that went poorly for Klingberg. It was the season before that, too.
Klingberg will inevitably stack up some points playing in a high-powered offence, but are the defensive issues just going away? And if they don’t, what then for the Leafs? The answer: a trade for someone better. And to get that someone, money will likely need to go out. If Klingberg hasn’t worked out by that point, maybe he’s the one exiting in a deal that sees the Leafs try to right an offseason wrong.
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Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
Let’s start with the not-so-bold part of this prediction: Martin Jones could very well get claimed when he is passed through waivers, leaving a giant hole in the Leafs goaltender depth.
Who fills that hole? All 6 feet 7 and 222 pounds of Dennis Hildeby.
Am I higher on Hildeby than others? For sure. But I see a goalie with serious NHL size, consistent composure and a full season of Swedish pro hockey under his belt. It adds up to his likely pushing Keith Petruzzelli for the Marlies’ starting gig and the No. 3 spot on the Leafs goalie depth chart. Injuries happen, and Hildeby will put together a string of strong appearances in his first full AHL season that the Leafs feel confident enough to give him a game or two over a year after being drafted.
Whether Hildeby becomes a goalie for the future or simply the next version of Erik Källgren remains to be seen. But the Leafs regular season is meant for trying things, and the Hildeby experiment will begin sometime in 2023-24.
Spice meter: 🌶️🌶️
(Top photo: Gavin Napier / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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